The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s Business Barometer long-term index crashed to an all-time low in March, dropping 24.8 index points to 25.0. The small business confidence indicator reached a lower mark than it did at any time during the 2020 pandemic, 2008 financial crisis or 9/11.
“Small business owners are feeling pessimistic about their business’s perspectives for the next few months or even beyond. It’s hard to make critical decisions for the long, medium or short term when so much can change within a matter of hours,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research. “No one knows when the tariff war will end, and businesses are worried the worst is yet to come.”
To recoup the losses caused by tariffs and the ongoing financial struggles, small businesses plan to raise prices by an average of 3.7%, an increase from 3.0% in February – the largest month-over-month spike in price increase intentions since the pandemic. Average wage increase plans dropped to 1.9% from 2.2% last month.
Weak small business optimism is also translating into lower hiring plans, with 19% of small firms planning to lay off in the next few months (up from 13% in February), and only 11% looking to hire.
Insufficient demand has been steadily trending upwards since November 2024, reaching a new historical high of 59% of affected small firms in March, eclipsing the pandemic high mark of 53% for this indicator.
Confidence among all sectors also fell, with hospitality (17.0), manufacturing (18.6), transportation (21.0), and agriculture (21.3) at the bottom of the scale. In addition to U.S. tariffs, agriculture businesses are also facing 100% tariffs from China on canola oil, peas and oil cakes as well as 25% tariffs on pork and aquatic products such as lobsters.
“Chinese tariffs are coming at the worst possible time given the ongoing uncertainty in our trading relationship with the United States,” Gaudreault added.
All provinces registered a drop in optimism, with the three largest provinces among the most pessimistic: Ontario (23.4), Alberta (24.1) and Quebec (24.9).
“Business confidence is at abysmal levels. If this doesn’t send a strong warning signal to policymakers that businesses urgently need all the help they can get to weather this storm, including a much-improved business environment here in Canada, then I’m not sure what will,” said Corinne Pohlmann, Executive Vice-President of Advocacy at CFIB. “Now is the time to show strong support to small businesses. Taking proactive actions, such as making carbon tax rebates for small businesses tax free, adopting full mutual recognition right across Canada, increasing the lifetime capital gains exemption, and ensuring there are supports that are accessible to small businesses to help them through this challenging ordeal would significantly boost confidence at a time when small businesses need it the most.”
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