Housing Starts Trend Higher Again In November

The six-month trend in housing starts was higher in November at 257,777 units, up 0.7% from 255,876 units in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.

The monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada decreased 22% in November (212,624 units) compared to October (272,264 units).

The monthly SAAR of total urban (centres 10,000 population and over) housing starts decreased 23%, with 195,363 units recorded. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 27% to 151,297 units, while single-detached urban starts decreased 7% to 44,066 units.

Total SAAR housing starts were down 30% in Montreal and 39% in both Toronto and Vancouver, driven by significant declines in multi-unit starts.

The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 17,261 units.

“The notable drop in the rate of housing starts in November, particularly in the multi-unit space, should not come as a major surprise and reflects tighter economic conditions impacting construction timelines. As the more difficult borrowing conditions and labour shortages now seem to be showing in the starts numbers, we can expect to see continued slower starts rates in the coming months,” said Kevin Hughes, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist.

• Actual 2023 year-to-date housing starts were 17% and 31% higher than the same period in 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver, respectively, driven by higher multi-unit starts.
• Nationally, actual year-to-date housing starts are currently down 8% in centres of 10,000 population and over, currently sitting at 204,721 as of November 2023, compared to 222,177 in November 2022. This decline is primarily explained by a 27% decline in single-detached starts.
• Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
• Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the December housing starts data on January 16 at 8:15 AM ET.
• CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and to obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.
• Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.