The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry – Bracebridge Minden Parry Sound District is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is in effect in the District until Friday, April 14, 2023 . This message will effect residents within the MNRF Bracebridge Minden Parry Sound District which includes the District Municipality of Muskoka, the Territorial District of Parry Sound and the County of Haliburton.
Watersheds or river sections within this bulletin area include Muskoka River, Magnetawan River, Seguin River, Black River, Gull River and Burnt River.
Runoff to local lakes and rivers is anticipated to increase significantly. Water levels and river flows are expected to rise with increased runoff.
Lower-lying portions of known flood-prone areas may be impacted to various degrees as lake/river levels rise over the next week.
No ice is safe ice. Ice conditions on local lakes have deteriorated with warmer temperatures and changing water levels and flows.
With rain, warmer temperatures and melting snow, banks and shorelines adjacent to water bodies can be extremely slippery and unstable. Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain close supervision of children and pets.
MNRF also advises extreme caution when using forest access roads for outdoor activities as they may become seasonally inundated with water, are prone to washouts and may become impassible due to localized flooding.
Residents that may be affected by high water and flow conditions should take necessary action to protect/secure any vulnerable property in proximity to rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for updated messages.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.
Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Description of Weather System
Environment Canada has issued Freezing Rain Warnings with ice accretion of 5 to 10mm for various locations in the area for Tuesday April 4 overnight into Wednesday April 5.
Rainfall accumulations of up to 50 mm is forecasted for areas east of Georgian Bay with thunderstorms possible on Wednesday April 5. Daytime highs over the next week are forecasted to range between +1°C and +12°C while nighttime lows range between +4°C and -9°C in the area.
Description of Current Conditions
Lake water levels are generally within their lower normal operating zones for this time of year. River flows are increasing and near bank full conditions.
The remaining snowpack ranges from average to above average for this time of year and is saturated with little ability absorb rainfall.
The forecasted warm weather and rainfall will cause the snowpack to melt faster. Increased runoff will cause lake levels and river flows to continue to rise over the next several days.
Lower-lying portions of known flood-prone areas may be impacted to various degrees as lake/river levels rise over the next week.
MNRF is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
DEFINITIONS
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surfacewater-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www. weather.gc.ca
