El Niño’s Final Stand; A Mild But Moody Spring Across Canada

SpringFX_NAT_Temp_24 (CNW Group/Pelmorex Corp.)

What an extraordinarily mild winter it has been across Canada! While the past season included a monumental snowstorm for Atlantic Canada and a stretch of severe cold across western Canada, El Niño stole the show with one of the warmest winters on record and minimal snow for many. Will this pattern continue through spring?

To answer this question, The Weather Network has issued their Spring Forecast for the months of March, April and May.

“El Niño is fading, and La Niña appears to be getting ready to take the stage as we head towards summer,” said Chris Scott, Chief Meteorologist with The Weather Network. “Therefore, we expect this spring will feature profound mood swings across Canada as periods of late winter-like weather interrupt our journey towards consistent warm weather. However, we expect that warmer-than-normal temperatures will outduel the cold weather for most Canadians this spring.”

Spring is a critical season for receiving adequate rain as the growing season begins. While we expect that March will bring its share of active and stormy weather, we are concerned that large parts of the country will turn rather dry before we head into summer.

Below is a more detailed look at the conditions expected across Canada this spring:

Ontario & Quebec – Spring weather started very early this year and that is a preview of what is to come as we expect warmer-than-normal temperatures will dominate the season. However, the mild spring will be moody at times with periods of colder-than-normal temperatures, a risk for significant late winter weather and even a threat for a late season frost. We are also concerned about the potential for increasingly dry conditions to develop during the second half of the season.

British Columbia – After a cooler and unsettled start to the season, pleasant spring weather is expected to dominate with warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions. Spring flooding is less of a concern this year with below normal snowpack in the alpine regions. However, this also means a shorter spring ski season and a risk for an early start to the wildfire season.

The Prairies – Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate the season with a reduced risk for spring flooding due to a below-normal snowpack across the region. However, the temperature patterns are expected to be even more changeable than normal with periods of colder-than-normal temperatures and a few high-impact late winter events. Drought continues to be a concern for parts of the region and wildfires will be an increasing concern later in the season, especially for Alberta.

Atlantic Canada – Near-normal temperatures and precipitation totals are expected, but we also have a heightened risk for dramatic pattern changes and high-impact late winter storms. However, the periods of colder-than-normal temperatures should be offset by periods of warmer-than-normal weather. An active storm track is expected to continue through March and possibly into April before a drier pattern develops for the second half of the season.

Northern Canada – Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected for most of the region, including the Yukon, much of the NWT and Baffin Island. Meanwhile, near-normal temperatures are expected for western parts of Nunavut. Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of the region.

Over the next few weeks, Canadians should pay close attention to the daily forecasts as weather and road conditions can change rapidly. Visit theweathernetwork.com or download The Weather Network App on iOS or Android for up-to-the minute forecasts.

 The Weather Network: Spring 2024 Forecast 


Temperature Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

British Columbia

Above normal

Below normal; Near normal
southeast & far north


Above normal

Near normal south; Below
normal north


Above normal

Near normal; Above normal
east central


Above normal; Near normal far north

Near normal; Above normal


Above normal; Near normal far north

Below normal south &
northeast; Near normal


Above normal south & northeast; Near
normal elsewhere

Below normal south; Near
normal north & far east

The Maritimes and
Newfoundland and

Near normal; Above normal Labrador &
northern Newfoundland

Near normal; Below normal
northwest NB; Above normal
southwest NS

Yukon, Northwest
Territories, Nunavut

Above normal Yukon, western & central
NWT, and Baffin Island; Near normal most
of Nunavut & eastern NWT

Near normal

Complete Spring Forecast details, including regional breakdowns, maps and charts are available on our seasonal page at theweathernetwork.com/spring.

For your daily forecasts visit theweathernetwork.com or download The Weather Network App available on iOS and Android and create an account for personalized and up-to-the minute forecasts


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