According to a new annual forecast from the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), electricity demand in Ontario is anticipated to grow 75 per cent by 2050, higher than previously forecast, with annual consumption rising from 151 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 263 TWh in 2050.
The accelerated pace of demand growth in this year’s forecast is primarily attributed to the industrial sector, which includes additional electric vehicle supply chain manufacturing; and energy-intensive data centres, a trend that is quickly emerging around the world to support the proliferation of artificial intelligence. An increasing population and focus on electrification are other factors continuing to escalate electricity demand across the province.
“The rising growth forecast is a positive reflection of Ontario’s reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity grid, which continues to attract new investment in our province,” said Lesley Gallinger, President and CEO, the IESO. “Through our robust procurement process, we have secured supply to meet Ontario’s needs through the end of this decade. With growing demand, our focus is on accelerating the pace of new electricity infrastructure development across the province so that we can support the province’s continued growth into the 2030s.”
By regularly forecasting future electricity needs, the IESO informs electricity investment decisions and sets the context for resource procurements. A procurement for new electricity generation and storage resources is currently being finalized, with targets and timelines that will reflect faster demand growth. All forms of electricity supply will compete, securing the best price for Ontarians.
“Ontario needs to generate more power, and our government has the plan to build out affordable, reliable and clean energy for our families and future generations,” said the Hon. Stephen Lecce, Minister of Energy and Electrification. “Above all, we must act with speed and urgency to ensure we think long-term and build for the future while avoiding short-sighted ideological policies that almost always lead to higher energy bills. Our vision is well underway as we lead the largest nuclear expansion on the continent on time and on budget. However, we must and will do more to decisively meet emerging supply gaps. In the days ahead, we will build upon our plan by significantly expanding energy generation, conservation and storage to keep the lights on and energy bills down for Ontario families.”
The demand forecast is the cornerstone of the IESO’s Annual Planning Outlook. The Outlook includes updated projected electricity demand, resource adequacy assessments, transmission considerations, and identifies the province’s energy and capacity needs. The next Annual Planning Outlook is scheduled for release in Q1 2025. The new demand forecast is being released early to support ongoing engagement with stakeholders and communities; additional detail can be found here: https://ieso.ca/-/media/Files/IESO/Document-Library/engage/apo/APO-20241016-presentation-demand-forecast.pdf.
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