A new report finds that Northern Ontario’s rapidly rising homelessness crisis now poses
a direct risk to the region’s long-term economic growth, workforce, and health systems
but that the trend can be reversed with a relatively modest, targeted investment.
The report, Protecting Northern Ontario for 1.3 cents on the dollar: Housing and health
integration to support a 34.6 billion economy, examines how the integration of housing
and health infrastructure supports the region’s $34.6 billion economy. The study,
building upon the results of January 2025 report “Municipalities Under Pressure: The
Human and Financial Cost of Ontario’s Homelessness Crisis”, shows that under current
conditions, homelessness in Northern Ontario will more than double by 2035, placing
increasing pressure on emergency departments, shelters, corrections and local labour
markets.
The study was conducted by HelpSeeker Technologies, in partnership with the Northern
Ontario Service Deliverers Association (NOSDA) and the Canadian Mental Health
Association (CMHA), Ontario.
This analysis builds on the Ontario-wide housing and homelessness investment case
set out in the 2025 and 2026 Municipalities Under Pressure reports, which identified an
approximately $11 billion housing investment required to change homelessness
trajectories. Those reports also noted that housing investment alone would not produce
durable outcomes without integration with other systems, including health. The
scenarios presented in the report examine how housing investment performs under
those conditions.
Analysis in the report demonstrates that investing in earlier intervention, combined with
housing across the continuum and operating funding for health and housing retention,
will lead to faster stabilization of the housing sector and fewer people entering
homelessness. According to the report, this stabilization investment would be
approximately $435 million or the equivalent of about 1.3 cents for every dollar
generated by Northern Ontario’s economy.
The investment scenarios examine how different investment choices affect
homelessness over time under Northern Ontario conditions, the modelling tests three
investment approaches over a 10-year period.
The difference between the 11-billion-dollar provincial ask and the Northern Scenarios
topping out at 5.1 billion, is the integration of health services including mental-health
and addictions supports that will affect homelessness levels over time.
Northern Ontario plays a key role in exports, natural resources, and critical minerals,
with more than $10 billion in goods exported annually, largely to the United States. The
provincial government has committed billions to resource development in the region,
including investments in critical minerals processing, Indigenous participation, and
transportation infrastructure.
The new report warns that capital investment alone is not enough. Communities must
be able to house and support the workforce required to deliver these projects and
housing investment must be integrated with mental health and substance use support to
be effective.
Northern Ontario is seeing a rapid rise in homelessness and significantly higher rates of
mental health and substance-related harms, with related emergency department visits
two to four times above the provincial average.
“Housing instability and unmet health needs are no longer just social issues – they are
economic risks,” said Michelle Boileau, Mayor of Timmins, and Chair of NOSDA. “They
can undermine labour attraction, retention and productivity at the very moment when
Northern Ontario is expected to deliver on major public and private investments.”
The Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO), the Ontario Municipal Social
Services Association (OMSSA), and the Northern Ontario Service Deliverers
Association (NOSDA) also released a report this week Municipalities Under Pressure
One Year Later: The Human and Financial Cost of Ontario’s Homelessness Crisis. This
report shows the number of people experiencing homelessness in Northern Ontario
rose from 5,930 to 8,142 in the past year, an increase of more than 37 per cent as
compared to 7.8 per cent provincially. Since 2021, homelessness in the north has
increased by approximately 117 per cent, more than double the provincial rate. While
Northern Ontario represents five per cent of Ontario’s population, it now accounts for
nearly 10 per cent of all known homelessness in the province.
Housing shortages, long wait times for community housing and limited access to health
and mental health services are already making it harder to attract and retain workers,
particularly in smaller and remote communities. Average waits for community housing
can be more than three years, with some communities reporting waits of 10 years or
more. The community housing waitlist in Northern Ontario increased from 8,855
households in 2018 to 13,104 households in 2025, a 48 percent increase.
“Investing in stronger social supports is necessary for our economic protection,” said
Boileau. “It will reduce reliance on shelters, emergency departments, hospitals, and
other high-cost responses in our communities.”
Local lens (District of Parry Sound):
